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经济增长是经济学最重要的研究对象之一。人类很早就开始探讨如何增加财富问题。从色诺芬、亚里斯多德的古代财富增长思想到重商主义、古典经济学、新古典经济学、发展经济学、增长理论和内生增长理论无不例外地探讨人类永恒的问题：财富的增加和经济增长。
经济增长是经济学最重要的研究对象之一。人类很早就开始探讨如何增加财富问题。从色诺芬、亚里斯多德的古代财富增长思想到重商主义、古典经济学、新古典经济学、发展经济学、增长理论和内生增长理论无不例外地探讨人类永恒的问题：财富的增加和经济增长。当然，随着时代的变化，经济增长思想和理论也不断在演化。萨缪尔森说：经济理论和经济史既是一系列的人类课题，也是一门不断演化的社会科学。在早期封闭经济中，人们探讨的主要是一国国内要素积累问题，是一种封闭条件下如何增加一国的财富。要素的内容也主要是土地、劳动、资本等传统生产要素。随着生产力的发展，经济不断的对外开放，特别是目前经济全球化背景下，一国经济的发展是与外部因素息息相关的。在开放经济中，经济增长的理论更关注开放对一国经济的影响。关注经济增长的要素内容也越来越偏向技术、人力资本等新的生产要素上。毫无疑问，经济增长是经济学中一个最具有魅力和经久不衰的话题。正如罗伯特·卢卡斯（LucasR.）在剑桥大学“马歇尔讲座”上说：“印度的收入每50年翻一番，而韩国每1年翻一番。平均来说，一个印度人的收入将是他祖父的两倍，而一个韩国人的收入将是他祖父的32倍……我无法想象一个人看到这些数字时不会认为其代表了巨大的可能性。印度政府是否能采取某些行动使印度的经济像印度尼西亚和埃及的经济那样增长？如果能，那么应该采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些‘印度的特性’使其无法这么做呢？这些问题中所包含的人类福利含义本身就是非常重要的：一旦我们开始思考这些问题，我们就发现很难再去思考其他问题。
在经济全球化的今天，研究经济增长离不开对国际贸易的研究。国际贸易是对外开放的主要内容和重要表现之一。马歇尔在其名著《经济学原理》中早就明确指出：“确定国家经济进步的原因属于国际贸易的研究范畴。”这句话精辟地说明了贸易在一国经济增长中的重要作用，尤其是在长期经济增长和经济结构演进方面的不可或缺的作用。马歇尔（Marshall,1890）指出19世纪“决定各国经济进步的原因就是国际贸易”。国际贸易作为跨国界的商品交换早就有之。当然只有到了资本主义社会，生产力得到快速发展，商品经济占统治地位下，资本主义的生产方式最终导致海外市场的开拓和掠夺，国际贸易才真正得到发展。在经济全球化背景下，虽然资本的跨国界移动成为全球化的主要特征，但商品的跨国界移动有增无减，国际贸易对一国经济增长仍然是不可忽视的因素。
自从有了跨国界的商品交换以来，人们就开始关注国际贸易与经济增长的关系。国际贸易是经济学中最早研究领域之一。早在重商主义时期，经济学家就开始关注国际贸易的重要性，并把贸易中的顺差看成是一国财富的真正来源。随后亚当斯密的国际分工理论和绝对优势理论、大卫李嘉图的比较优势理论、约翰·穆勒的国际贸易理论、因尼斯（H.Innis）“大宗商品”理论、马克斯·科登（Marx.Cordon）的“供给启动论”、赫－俄的要素禀赋论、凯恩斯的国际贸易宏观经济理论、罗伯特逊(Dennis H.Robertson)和纳克斯（RagnNurkse）的“增长引擎论”和新贸易理论等各种经济理论都不同程度地对国际贸易的经济增长效应进行论证。这些理论基本上从国际贸易的静态和动态利益两方面肯定了国际贸易对经济增长的贡献。然而，并不是所有的经济学家都认为国际贸易对经济增长具有推动作用，有些经济学家甚至认为国际贸易对经济增长有负面甚至阻碍作用。上世纪50、60年代的一些发展经济学家对传统理论提出质疑。普罗维什等认为对外贸易已成为发展中国家经济进步的阻力，“中心外围论”、“贸易条件恶化论”、“贫困化增长”理论大受追捧。这种贸易悲观主义一定程度上促使了当时许多发展中国家选择走内向型进口替代工业化的发展战略。有些学者则认为国际贸易对经济增长无关紧要。1970年，美国经济学家克拉维斯（I.B.Kravis）
明确地把国际贸易称为“增长的侍女”，认为一国经济增长主要是由国内因素决定的，外部需求只构成了对增长的额外刺激，因此，国际贸易既不是经济增长的充分条件也不是必要条件，而且，还不一定对经济增长有益。
对于国际贸易是经济“增长的发动机”，“增长的侍女”抑或“贫困化增长”？目前仍莫衷一是。在经济思想史上，人们根据时代特征和理论逻辑分别从不同侧面对国际贸易和经济增长关系提出自己的观点，大有仁者见仁、智者见智之意。在经济全球化背景下，在总结前人理论的基础上，从一个全新的视角全面地对国际贸易的经济增长效应进行研究具有重要的理论意义。
8.马克斯·科登和哈勃勒的国际贸易和经济增长思想澳大利亚经济学家马克斯·科登（Max Corden）将对外贸易与宏观经济变量联系起来，从供给角度剖析对外贸易对经济增长的影响。他认为对外贸易会在以下五个方面影响生产要素供给量和劳动生产率：①收入效应，即对外贸易取得的利益转化为国民收入总量的增加；②资本积累效应，即当来自贸易利益的收入部分用于投资时使该国资本积累增加；③替代效应，即若投资品为进口含量较大的产品，投资品供给增加，对消费品的相对价格下降，从而投资对消费比率提高，推动经济增长率上升；④收入分配效应；即对外贸易的开展将使出口生产密集使用的生产要素的报酬和这些要素的所有者收入大为提高，若这些要素所有者属于内储蓄倾向较高的集团，则在其他条件不变的前提下，这种收入分配的变化将会提高经济的储蓄率，因而提高资本的积累率；⑤要素加权效应。即假定生产要素的劳动生产率增长不一致，则产出的增长率可视为各种生产要素增长率的加权平均。科登进一步认为对外贸易对宏观经济产生的这五方面影响都是累积性的，这意味着对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用将随着经济发展而不断加强。
美国经济学家哈勃勒将贸易对经济增长的促进作用概括为：①贸易促使欠发达国家的资源得到充分利用；②通过市场的扩大促使劳动力流动及规模经济的获得；③国际贸易传输新观念、新技术、先进的管理及其它技巧；④贸易刺激资本由发达国家向发展中国家流动；⑤新设备的进口刺激国内需求；⑥国际贸易同时是最好的反垄断武器。作为新古典经济学家，他们都主张自由贸易论，哈勃勒提出了自由贸易利益的著名的“哈勃勒三角”。
目前，国际贸易促进经济增长的假设在实证上并未得到一致结论，一方面是由于国际贸易与经济增长间关系本身的复杂性。国际贸易影响经济增长并非是一种简单的程式化形式，国际贸易进经济增长牵涉到贸易国的各种因素以及各因素间的相互作用。贸易双方的要素禀赋、经济发展水平、经济结构，甚至社会、文化、制度等都可能影响到贸易的经济增长效应。模型化研究存在一定难度。另一方面是实证研究中数据的选取、模型的设定、变量处理以及实证分析技术的差异。在数据选取上，传统上，大多数经济学家使用时间序列数据并进行简单回归分析。后来，经济学家开始大量使用截面数据和面板数据。
二、模型设定
面板数据模型的基本形式如下：设有因变量与1×k维解释变量向量，满足线性关系
，i=1,2,N, t=1,2,T,
其中是因变量，是1×k维解释变量向量，N表示个体截面成员的个数，T表示每个截面成员的观测时期总数，参数表示模型的常项，表示对应于解释变量向量的k×1维系数向量，k表示解释变量个数。随机误差项相互独立，且满足零均值，等方差的假设。
误差扰动项：，i=1,2,…,N, t=1,2，…，T
其中是个体影响，是的残余扰动项。Var()=,而且相互独立。根据对的不同假设，将面板数据模型分为固定效应模型(fixed effect model,FEM)和随机效应模型(random effect model,REM)。
这一基本形式可以根据横截项向量α和系数向量β中各分量在不同横截面上
是否相同，分为如下三种类别，即：
无个体影响的不变系数模型：
，i=1,2,…,N, t=1,2，…，T （1-1）
（2）变截距模型：
,i=1,2…，N,t=1,2…，T（1-2）
（3）变系数模型：
,i=1,2…，N,t=1,2…，T（1-3）
建立面板数据模型首先应通过协方差分析检验来选择具体的模型类型。主要检验如下两种假设：
如果接受，则认为样本数据符合模型（1-1），无需再进一步的检验。如果拒绝，则需检验。如果接受，则认为样本数据符合模型（1-2），拒绝，则认为样本数据符合模型（1-3）。
对两个假设的检验是根据两个F统计量来进行的。分别记式(1-3)、式(1-2)，式(1-1)的残差平方和为,在假设下检验统计量服从相应自由度下的F分布，即
相似地，在假设下检验统计量服从相应自由度下的F分布，即
根据计算得到的两个统计量的值与给定的显著性水平下相应的F分布的临界值相比较后就可以得到应该采用哪种模型形式。
三、回归结果
首先，通过计算可以得到上述三种模型类型的三个残差平方和分别为0.485443、0.625313、55.43264，代入式(*)和(**)得
＝0.9430，＝184.7432，应该拒绝,接受，所以选用变截距模型。变截距模型又可以根据个体的不同影响分别可以划分为固定效应和随机效应两种，本文主要是针对选用的由不同类型国家组成的样本进行比较研究，因此仅仅对样本本身进行分析，选用固定效应模型仍然是合适的，具体的，还可以用豪斯曼(Hausman)检验进行识别.然后，先对样本总体进行回归，再分别对各种类型的国家进行回归。得出的结果如下表3－4所示：
从表3－4我们可以看到，以进出口总额表示的外贸规模显著地解释了各国的济增长，模型的拟合程度很高。，表明了尽管许多的因素带来了经济的增长，但是，国际贸易显然是其中的促进因素之一。进一步地，在本文选用的样本里，各个国家间的经济发展水平及外贸体制等存在差异，有的相去甚远，因此采用按不同类型的国家进行分组后再进一步回归估计，可以清楚地看到外贸促进经济增长在不同国家之间的差异性。分组回归后的结果表明，不同类型的国家之间的值不同，国际贸易对经济增长的影响显然还受到其他因素的影响。外贸对经济增长的弹性以发达国家最高，发展中国家最低。而属于新兴工业化国家的韩国和新加坡的外贸也在经济增长中扮演了极其重要的角色，β值达到了0.680166。至于经济转型国家则还有待提高外贸的贡献力。造成不同组别国家的β值不同的原因可能是不同发展类型的国家间经济结构存在差异。例如，发达国家较之发展中国家，前者的出口商品结构构成可能是一些投资回报率很高的工业制成品和高科技产品，而发展中国家的出口品可能只是一些初级产品。此外不同国家的贸易传递机制也存在着比较大的差异。
结论：
从实证中我们可以得出一些基本结论：总体而言，国际贸易可以促进经济增长，但是，国际贸易的经济增长效应在不同国家存在一定差异。这些差异恰恰说明了国际贸易与经济增长间并不存在一种简单的对应关系，而是涉及诸多因素。贸易国的经济发展水平、经济结构、贸易政策、贸易战略、技术水平，人力资源存量、制度结构以及所处的外部环境都可能影响到国际贸易的经济增长效应。有经验研究表明，无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，如果是技术创新作用于内生变量，通过改变需求收入弹性，就可以改善贸易条件，形成规模经济效应，从而获得贸易的好处，使一国福利上升。较发达国家由于在国际分工中处于上游，往往可以获得较大的贸易利益；而欠发达国家在国际贸易中因为自身的贸易商品结构劣势，即使可以从贸易中获得财富效应，但由于贸易条件可能下降很多，因此获得的利益较少。而经济转型国家由于市场经济不够成熟，国际贸易的经济增长效应的各种传递机制不够完善，贸易的利益可能无法得到充分体现。
在经济全球化背景下，国际贸易与经济增长再度引起经济学家们的关注，成为重要研究课题。为了更科学地论证国际贸易的经济增长效应，我们利用面板数据建立一个跨国实证模型，实证分析发现总体上贸易促进样本国家的经济增长，但不同类型国家的贸易对经济增长的贡献度不同。
在过去很长的一段时间里，由于外向型经济超常的经济增长绩效，很多经济学家研究了外向型经济发展战略与经济增长之间的关系。B·Balassa（1986）研究发现外向型国家的经济增长一直超过内向型国家
Economy growth is one of the most important study subjects of Economics. The human being begin to approach how to increase the wealth long time ago. The subject of wealth increasing and the economy growth have been under researching earliest from Xenophon&Aristoteles' ancient wealth increasing ideology to the Mercantilism, Classic economics, Neoclassical Economics, Evolutive Economics, Growth Theory, and Endogenous Growth Theory. Meanwhile, the economy growth ideology and theory evolved with times changing naturally for sure. " the economy theory and the economy history worked not only as the humanbeings task but also as an ceaseless evolution social Sciences." Samuelson said. During the earlier closed economy times, people mainly study the domestic factors accumulations, which is also the problems of how to increase the country's wealth under the closed conditions. Naturally, the core elements is traditional, for example, the land, working, capital etc. However, along with the productivity progression, the continuously opening up policies , and especially with the globalization nowadays, www.steelbee.net the economy development of the country closed link to the outer environment. Under the opening economy, they focus on not only the economy increasing theory but also the economy effects brought by the opening economy. And gradually when they concerning the economy elements, they will pay more attention to the new productivity factors such as technical, labour capital etc. It is no doubt that the economy increasing is the charming and prolong topic in the Economics, just as Robert Lucasr said during the "MARSHALL LECTURES" in Cambridge University that “ The India's income doubled with 50 years and the South Korea only with 1 year, which means an Indian's income is twice of his grandfather and the South Korea is even 32 times. I can not doubt that you will not think it stand for the great possibilities when you see the figures.” Will the India government take actions to push up the economy increased as the Indonesia and Egypt did? If the answer is yes then what policy will be taken, if not, then what the 'India characteristics' on earth prevent it happening? The humanbeings welfare included in these problems itself is most important, and once we start to think about it, we will find it is difficult to consider the other problems any more.
Under the nowadays economy globalization, you can not purely study the economy increasing without the research of the international trade. The international trade is one of the mainly topics and important presentations in the open up economy. " specify the reasons of a country's progress is belong to the international trade research” indicated earlier by Marshall in his famous works《Principles of Economics, which expounds on penetratingly the important roles the international trade palyed in the economy increasing especially in the prolong economy increasing and the economy structure evolution. Marshall said in 1890 that the determinant of a country's economy is international trade in 19 century. The international trade behaved as the cross country commodity exchange traced long ago, however, it is not fully developed until the Capitalism times, when the productivity fast promoted, commodity economy took the priority, and subsequently overseas exploitation and plunder caused by the Capitalism mode of production. Under the economy globalization nowadays, although the capital cross country movement works as the typical characteristic, the cross border commodity exchange is ever-increasing, and thus the international trade contribute to the country's increase can not be ignored. From the beginning of the cross board commodity exchange, people have been paying much attention to the relationship of economy growth and the international trading. As one of the earliest study fields in the Economics, the economist began to concern its importance since Mercantilism times and take it as the actual sources of a country wealth under the trade surplus. Furthermore, the international trade's effects towards the economy also being demonstrated in varying degrees afterwards, by Adam Smith's International Division of Labour and Theory of Absolute Advantage, David Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage, John· Mill's International Trade Theory, H. Innis' Bulk Merchandise Theory, Marx. Cordon's " Supply start up theory", Helios' Factor-endowment theory, Keynes' International Trade Macroeconomic Theory, Dennis H.Robertson and RagnNurkse's 'increasing engin theory' 'New trade Theory' and some other diffierent kinds of Economy theories. These theories generally confirm the international trade's contribution to the economy growth from the static and dynamic both sides interests. However, not all the economists consider the international trade push up the economy and some even think it have negative factors or prevent the economy growth. Some development economists has questioned the traditional theory in 1950, 60's for example, PulloWeith think the international trade has been the resistance of the developing countries, and his "The Periphery Is the Center Theory" "TOT deterioration" "immiserizing growth" were well received at that time. These pessimistic theory has caused many developing countries in some extent to choose the Internal-oriented economy instead of the Industrialization development strategy. And also some scholar think the international trade has nothing to do with the economic growth. In 1970's, the American economist explicit the international trade clearly as the " Handmaiden of Growth " and think the country's economy growth mainly depends on the domestic factors and the external demand is just the stimulus for the economy growth. Thus the international trade is neither the sufficient condition towards the economy growth nor the necessary condition and may not benefit the economy growth too. Nowadays whether the international trade is the" growth engine", "Handmaiden of Growth" or "immiserizing growth", there is still not a definite answer. From the economy ideology history, different people raise different ideas about the international trade with the economic growth based on their own times background and theory logical. Under the nowadays globalization background, based on the predecessor's theory, we study the relationship of international trade and economy growth in a new way comprehensively will have a great theoretical significance.
Max Corden and Habolay's Ideology of International trade and economy growth.
The Australian economist Max Corden analyse the international trade's effects towards the economy growth from the supply side together with the foreign trade and macroeconomic variable, then he think the foreign trade have the following five elements to affect the quantity of output and the labor productivity. ① Revenue Effect, the trade income will contribute to the GDP. ② Capital accumulation effects. The trade income partially used in the domestic investment will accumulate the Capital. ③ substitution effect. If the imported products take a larger portion of the domestic investment, the consumer goods price will be down comparatively. At the same time, the ratio of the investment and the consumption will be higher, then the Economic growth rate will be up. ④ Income Distribution Effect. The international trade will benefit the related export-orientation production factors and its owners. If these production factors’ owners belongs to the domestic saving orientation groups, based on other terms not changed, this type of income distribution changings will raise the Economic saving rate then subsequently increase the capital accumulation rate. ⑤ factors weighting effect. Suppose the production factors labor productivity increase differently, then the output growth rate can be considered as all the production factors growth rate weighted average. Max Corden further consider that the five elements caused by the international trade's effects towards the macroeconomic is positive, which means the acceleration of the international trade towards the economy growth will be strengthened with the economy development's consolidation.
The American economist Habolay summarize the functions of the international trade's promotion towards the economy growth as follows: ① The International trade make best use of the resources of the less developed countries. ② The International trade widen the market and made the labour force movement, realize the scale economy. ③ The international trade bring the new concepts, new technology, advance management and other skills. ④ The international trade stimulate the capital movement from the developed countries to the developing nations. ⑤ The importation of the new equipment stimulate the domestic requirements. ⑥ Meanwhile, the international trade is the best weapon to against the monopoly. As a neoclassical economist, Habolay raised him famous free trade benefits "Haberler Triangle" as others at that time. For the time being, the hypothesis of the international trade's promotion towards the economy growth have not came to the same conclusion. Firstly, the relationship between the international trade and the economy growth is very complicated since the international trade's promotion torwards the economy growth is not just a simple formularization. On the contrary, it related to varies elements from the trading countries and the interactions of these elements too. The trading parties' priorities, economy developing level, economy structure or even the society, culture, systems etc all may affect the tradeing's economy growth effects and also the studying of the modelling is rather difficult. Secondly, is the matter of the data chosen from the empirical research, the settlement of the models, variable handling and the empirical analysis technical diffierences. In the traditional data selection, most of the economists use the Time-series Data to draw the simple analysis, and afterwards with lots of Cross Section Data and panel data instead.
The Modelling settlement
The form of the panel data models worked as follows: Suppose the dependent variable and Explanatory Variable vector 1×k meet the linear relation, , i=1, 2..., N, t=1,2,T, is the dependent variable, is the 1×k Explanatory Variable vector, N stand for number of the individual cross sections, T stand for total number of individual cross sections in the observation period, Parameter stand for the constant term of the Models, stand for the k×1 coefficient vector again the Explanatory Variable vector , K means the number of the Explanatory Variable. The random error term is mutual independence, meet the Zero Mean and the supposition of equal variance .
Disequilibrium error: , i=1,2,…,N, t=1,2，…，T
is the individual effects, is the remnant disturbance term. Var()=, and mutual independent. According to the different supposition, the panel data model is divided into fixed effect model, FEM and random effect model,REM. This basic form can be divided into three categories as below according to whether the varies component of the cross section vector α and the coefficient vector β in the different cross section same or not.
The fixed coefficient model without individual interact.
, i=1,2,…,N, t=1,2，…，T （1-1）
（2）The Variable Intercept Model
, i=1,2…，N,t=1,2…，T（1-2）
The Variable Coefficient Model
, i=1,2…，N,t=1,2…，T（1-3）
To set up the panel data model, you have to choose the concrete model types through the analysis of covariance test.
The two kinds of supposition as:
If you agree with the , no need the do the next test. If you reject the , then you have to test the . If you accept , then you may think the sample data in accompany with the Model(1-2). If you reject the , then you may think the sample data in accompany with the Model(1-3).
The test of the two suppositions based on the two F statistics. The individual (1-3), (1-2), (1-3)'s remnant quadratic sum as . The test of F2 statistic under the supposition in accordance with the relevant F distribution in the freedom degree, which is:
()
Naturally, The test of statistic under the supposition in accordance with the relevant F distribution in the freedom degree, which is:
(**)
You may get the idea of which model should be chosen after the comparison based on the two calculated statistics and the threshold value of the F distribution accordingly with the indicated significance level.
Regression Output
Firstly, you can get the three remnant quadratic sum as 0.485443、0.625313、55.43264 individually based on the calculation of the above three types of models. Substitute to (*) and (**) then get ＝0.9430，＝184.7432 thus we reject , agree and then choose the Variable Intercept Model. The Variable Intercept can be divided into FEM and REM based on the individual different effects. In this article, we mainly compare and study the samples which come from different types of countries. So we choose the fixed effect model is workable and concrete in the term of the analysis into the samples itself, which also can be test by Hausman to differentiate. Firstly we can regress the samples, then to return the varies types of countries and get the results as the table 3-4 below:
Table3－4.The GLS regress output of the fixed effects Variable Intercept Models
Explanatory Variable totality Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
log(tv) 0.590151(20.47077) 0.689118(11.77954) 0.544036(9.416338) 0.578273(9.694932) 0.680166(10.31722)
Obs. 60 20 15 15 10
0.999919 0.999872 0.999692 0.999549 0.999554
Ad. 0.999898 0.999837 0.999609 0.999426 0.999427
D.W.-statistics 1.281968 0.873233 1.755845 0.828936 2.462228
According to the table3-4, the international trade scales represented by the total export-import volume can explicit every county's economy growth remarkably and the models similarity is rather high. If the , it means the economy growth which caused by lot of factors, and the international trade is one of the factors obviously. Furthermore, the countries selected in this article is quite different in the economy developing level and trading systems, some even more. As a result, we can find out the diffierences in varies countries of the trade promotion towards the economy growth based on the further regress evaluation with the grouping of different types of countries. The results based on the grouping regress, shows that the is different in various countries. And obviously, the international trade's effects towards the economy growth is affected by other elements too. The elasticity of the international trade towards the economy growth in the developed countries is highest and lowest in developing countries. However, the international trade of the newly industrializing countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, also played an important role in the economy growth and the β reaches 0.680166. On the other hand, for the Economic transition countries, the contribution of the international trade should be consolidated. The reasons of the β diffierences may lie in the economy structure diffierences of the varies types of countries. The products exported by the developed countries, for example, are the industrial manufactured goods or high technology ones, which is the higher Return Investment. On the contrary, the developing countries may only export the primary products. Furthermore, the trading transfer mechanism of different countries also have a big gap.
Conclusion:
Based on the above empirical, we can draw the conclusion that the international trade can boost the economy growth, however, the economy growth effects related with the international trade in various countries is also different. These differences, on the other hand indicated that the international trade not simply correspond with the economy growth, which depends on lot of factors such as the economy developing levels, economy structure, trading policies, trading strategy, technical abilities, labour force reserve, system structure and the outer environment. All of these can affects of the international trade promotion towards the economy growth. According to the studies, whether the developed countries or the developing ones, they can all improve their trading conditions to become the scale economies, benefit from the trading, and welfares goes up, if they can innovate their technicals and used it for the endogenous variable to alter the income demand elasticity. The developed countries usually are in the upper of the international division of labor, and they can maximum their benefits from the trading, however for the developing countries, because of its own trading commodities disadvantages, and trading conditions reduction, they can only benefit little from the trading even they get the wealthy effects too. For the countries under the economy transition, which its marketing economy and the various transfer mechanisms for the economy growth effects from the trading is not completely established, their interest from the trading can not fully guaranteed.
Under the globalization background nowadays, the international trade and the economy growth once again catch the eyes of the economist, and became the important study subjects. In order to demonstrate the international trade's effects towards the economy growth, we use the panel data and set up a cross board empirical model. Based on the empirical analysis, we can find that the international trade can boost the countries economy growth, however, its contribution is quite diffierent with various countries.
Since the long time before, lot of economists study the relationship between the export-oriented economy development strategy and the economy growth because of the export-oriented economy's excellent performance. B·Balassa（1986) found that the growth speed of the export-oriented economy countries always overtake the Internal-oriented economy ones.
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